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Weekly Update #15: Feb. 5 2024


No change in view than what was mentioned in the last few updates.

Brace for a period of choppy market in the upcoming weeks while financial conditions persist in siphoning liquidity from the market.
The model signaled an EXIT and is sitting on CASH. It is difficult to predict whether we will just see a deep flush, a sideways time correction, or both.

Financial conditions are continuing to tighten as the US Dollar strengthens and rates climb notably higher since the beginning of the year, presenting headwinds for liquidity and thereby affecting risk assets. Unfortunately, there's little indication that this trend will shift anytime soon, so it's prudent to anticipate ongoing downward pressure on risk assets.

On a brighter note, we're excited to share some positive developments this week. We've been diligently updating our model in the background, and the results have been remarkable. With these latest enhancements, the model's performance has seen a significant boost, enabling it to generate more precise signals for entering or exiting positions. Going forward, we'll promptly share these signals as they emerge on our screens, without waiting for the weekly newsletter. This means you'll have the opportunity to act on these signals before I do, as I'll publish them before executing any trades myself. We aim to ensure you're well-prepared to seize opportunities and maximize returns in the market's next upward movement. Let's go higher together.


The model signalled an EXIT last week and went in CASH. It´s still sitting in cash with no clear bullish signal on the horizon.

We´ll stay 100% data-driven and play it as the model indicates. If you still have some exposure, be cautious as usual.

LISTEN OF THE WEEK: Sven Henrich is one of my favorite technical analysts. Enjoy!

That’s it from us this week, thanks for reading!

DISCLAIMER: The No Rainy-Day Portfolio is not registered with any financial regulatory agencies. Content is for research, education, and entertainment purposes and should NOT be considered personalized financial advice.