Weekly Update #29: May. 13 2024
Note: Next week, I'll be on the move, so I'll keep next week's update brief unless there's something significant to report.
WHAT YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT MARKETS THIS WEEK
Macro:
Last week, US data presented a mixed picture, with the US dollar index and rates remaining stagnant. All eyes are now on the CPI release scheduled for May 15th, as it has the potential to shake things up.
In more positive news for liquidity, the Bank of England echoed the dovish sentiment already expressed by the ECB. Governor Bailey indicated during a Thursday press conference that the BoE may need to cut the Bank Rate in the coming quarters and adopt a less restrictive monetary policy over the forecast period. Liquidity seems to be gaining traction.
Equities:
Both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq rallied fueled by earnings optimism.
Our strategy will remain centered on AI-related equities, given the reaffirmation from recent Q1 earnings reports of major players like Microsoft, Amazon, Alphabet, and Meta. The increased investments by Big Tech in AI are translating into various aspects of tech infrastructure, including heightened GPU purchases, expanded custom silicon development, and the expansion of data centers.
Model continues to be bullish S&P and Nasdaq (price bars over the oscillator with green underline shown on the graph below).
Digital Assets (aka crypto)
Each Bitcoin move upward in this bull market has been preceded by a false break of the range low.
Holding current levels is bullish. Revisiting the 56-58k levels would not be and the model will probably flash an exit sign . Good news of the last week is that we got a higher lows for Bitcoin and that is usually the first sign of the potential trend reversal. The current setup has good potential but we need the market to confirm that we are right before going aggressive.
If the market confirms the uptrend with a breakout, will get full positions in. If not we will exit current positions waiting for another good setup.
With the SEC's impending decision on the approval of the Ethereum ETF looming, it's likely to be the catalyst markets have been waiting for to move up or down. However, I'm hesitant to gamble on the outcome as I'm uncertain about what the result will be and the current atmosphere seems less predictable compared to the days leading up to the BTC ETF decision.
PORTFOLIO UPDATE:
As stated in the last update we have opened positions in BTC, SOL during last crypto week fake breakout and will hold them till invalidated.
On the equity side we opened a position in HOOD, NVDA, MSFT, CRWD, SNOW
LINK OF THE WEEK:
This week, we'd like to share a video from Lyn Alden explaining clearly what is money and how it works.
That’s it from us this week, thanks for reading!
DISCLAIMER: The No Rainy-Day Portfolio is not registered with any financial regulatory agencies. Content is for research, education, and entertainment purposes and should NOT be considered personalized financial advice.